Renowned historian Allan Lichtman has unveiled his highly anticipated forecast for the 2024 presidential election, declaring vice president Kamala Harris as the projected victor.
Lichtman, a 77-year-old professor at American University, has garnered widespread attention for his unorthodox yet remarkably accurate prediction model, which has correctly called every presidential race since 1984.
Lichtman’s system, developed in 1981 alongside geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, eschews traditional polling and punditry in favor of 13 key factors he dubs the “keys to the White House.”
This method, grounded in 120 years of electoral history, enabled Lichtman to foresee Donald Trump’s unexpected triumph in 2016 and accurately predict the 2020 election outcome.
The 13 keys encompass a broad spectrum of political and socioeconomic factors, including midterm gains, incumbency, primary contests, third-party influence, economic conditions, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, candidate charisma and foreign policy successes or failures.
A candidate must lose six or more of these keys to be considered likely to lose the election, per Lichtman’s model.
Daily Mail reported that as of last month, Harris was only down three keys: party mandate/midterm gains, incumbency and incumbent charisma.
Lichtman noted that two additional keys–foreign policy and social unrest–were “shaky” but had not yet flipped against Harris.
Breaking down the keys, Lichtman explained that the Democrats performed better than expected in the 2022 midterms, despite losing House seats.
This resulted in a false midterm gains key, which paradoxically benefits Donald Trump.
The incumbency key also turned false when president Biden withdrew from the race, a move that cost the Democrats this traditionally strong point.
Democrats secured several true keys in their favor, however.
They avoided a primary contest by uniting behind Harris, there is no significant third-party challenger and the economy shows strength in both short-term and long-term metrics.
Lichtman also cited major policy changes under the Biden administration, including rejoining the Paris Climate Accords and passing significant legislation like the CHIPS bill and the Inflation Reduction Act.
The absence of widespread social unrest and the lack of a major White House scandal further bolstered Harris’s position.
Lichtman dismissed attempts to link president Biden to his son Hunter’s controversies, stating that the scandal key must involve the president directly.
While Lichtman acknowledged that Harris hasn’t met the high threshold for incumbent charisma, he also argued that Trump’s appeal to a narrow audience means the challenger charisma key remains true for the Democrats.
Based on these factors, Lichtman confidently predicted, “The Democrats will hold on to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.”
Daily Mail outlined that he did, however, caution that foreign policy developments, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza, could potentially alter the outcome.
Nevertheless, he maintained that even if both foreign policy keys turned against Harris, it would not be enough to secure a Trump victory.
Lichtman’s bold forecast has sent shockwaves through political circles, challenging conventional wisdom and forcing pundits to reassess their assumptions about the upcoming election.
As the campaign season heats up, all eyes will be on Harris and Trump to see if Lichtman’s remarkable prediction streak continues or if 2024 will mark a rare miss for the esteemed historian’s time-tested model.
Source: Resistthemainstream
